Theory of Change

Ian Carmichael - Logic Models & Program Design | November 2, 2026

Change is an absolute fact of life, and the only universal constant. This being the case, it is wise to develop some method or procedure for managing and directing change. Theory of Change is the raison d’être for a project or program. It details why an intervention is needed, what actions will be undertaken, and how those actions will produce the desired change. We have laid out a theory of habit change, relating it to personal development. The underlying principles can be extrapolated into a theory of change for projects and programs. Most importantly at this juncture, it must be noted that this is a way of thinking about these things, and not the way.

Near the start of this series, we discussed how the world can be viewed as a collection of habits which amplify, neutralize, and otherwise interact with each other. Any habit can be modelled in terms of the cue that initiates it, the behavior itself, and the reward or benefit it produces. Even apparently maladaptive or negative habits have some reward that maintains the pattern.

Any habit can be changed by adjusting the cue frequency, replacing the behavior with another one that provides a similar reward, changing the context in which the behavior occurs, or delaying/expediting the reward. Habits can be influenced by indirect means as well. Observing and developing a mental model of a habit helps people see what is occurring, and provides a basis for modeling a mode of habit change. Modulating the friction involved in the habit process, working to associate positive or negative emotions with the habit, or working to build social coherence in support of or opposition to the habit also indirectly influence its expression. There are two fundamental timescales for actions: a one-time action that course corrects, and a series of minimum viable actions that guides the outcome towards a goal.

Modelling a problem and choosing actions to take is not an objective process. It is value and perspective-laden. For this reason, it is a good idea to have many perspectives involved in design, and research past efforts to see how well they worked (or did not work, as might be the case). Simple and proven solutions that worked in one context may not be politically tenable in another area, or may run contrary to the character and norms of a different set of people. Designing a project or intervention has to account for these factors as well.

Below, we will explore a few common topics for intervention with some actions that could be taken to influence the outcomes. Those actions will be labelled in terms of the behavioral model.

Addressing teen opioid use:

  • Promote social cohesion in opposition to opioid use through awareness events.
  • Educate teens clearly on the ways in which opioid use will destroy a person’s body/mind/future (mental model).
  • Offer alternative Friday and Saturday night activities that engage youth and divert them from physical areas of potential purchase and use (cue frequency, behavior replacement).
  • Focus enforcement efforts on diverting young people into alternative recovery programs (behavior replacement).
  • Support local schools with more intensive extracurricular activities, including social and gaming clubs (behavior replacement).

Addressing empty storefronts downtown:

  • Implement an empty storefront fine that is greater than the financial benefit from writing off losses for the landlord (eliminate reward).
  • Offer low-cost financing for storefront renovation through a revolving loan fund available to residents principally addressed in the town (reduce friction).
  • Involve the community in creating window art installations in empty storefronts to mask them (behavior replacement).
  • Run entrepreneurship classes through a cohort model with regular unstructured or semi-structured discussion meet-ups to develop local knowledge of small businesses (mental model) and a community of practitioners who can support one another (social influence).

Supporting the development of local business:

  • Governmental and business association data gathering, highlighting market needs and opportunities (increase cue frequency)
  • Behavior – support and technical advising for startup phase businesses; operations support for existing businesses around taxes, supply chain, employee recruitment, etc (friction, mental model)
  • Tax support for entrepreneurs through the promotion of Volunteer Income Tax Assistance (VITA) sites to help individuals prepare Schedule C returns; job boards, associations, and similar advertising support for Certified Public Accountants (CPAs) to complete Limited Liability Company (LLC) and similar returns (friction, preservation of reward by minimizing tax bill)
  • Low interest start-up capital for local businesses principally or exclusively addressed in a specific geographic area, such as a town or county (friction)
  • Funding for local Chamber of Commerce events (social influence, emotions)
  • Time-limited business incubator spaces that provide low-cost physical space for one or two years, until a business has enough volume to pursue their own space (friction)
  • Economic development groups in a town bringing small business owners together with the express purpose of mutual support, collaboration, and information sharing (social influence, friction).

This process generates hypotheses about what will help the situation. Experience alone determines whether a policy, practice, or intervention is valid. Does it produce the desired outcomes? More importantly, when it doesn’t, why was that the case? A Theory of Change is just theoretical until actions are taken and outcomes measured. The tool for deploying a theory in a documented, repeatable format (ie using the scientific method) will be discussed in the next article, on Logic Models.

By controlling inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes through a logic model, the process or intervention can be improved over time. Logic models and project design is rarely a silver bullet or perfect solution. Lessons need to be learned and applied to the next iteration of the project or program. The logic model method creates just such an affordance.